This is a very difficult op-ed to write haven been identified as an
ardent supporter of President Mohammadu Buhari, however, I have sat back
to study the trends in terms of the raw data that reflects development
indicators for Nigeria and have realized that fixing Nigeria is way
beyond PMB at this point, for the most part in the first 4 years of this
government, expect nothing but a little improvement but for the most
part things getting really worse! Here is why.
1. When oil was over $100/bararell for the most part in GEJ's regime, the per capita income was only $2800 (average annual earning per head as a function of total GDP), meaning Nigeria saw more money than it had ever seen in the past 16 years, but most citizens can't point out to any Dubai-like improvement. Most of that money made people like Dasuki and Deziani billionaires and left over 112 million people living in poverty. Today oil price less than half of it, per capita income is down to $2200 with persistent rampant corruption even under Buhari. I doubt that any tangible thing can be done in four years. In fact, the economy is so bad that Buhari can't even balance the budget without driving Nigeria further into debt by asking the Senate to grant him approval to borrow over $10billion.
2. Today our growth rate is 2% as opposed to an annual rate of 7%. A 2% growth rate with no hope of an oil price increase will only lead to more job losses, less capital development, and an even more indebted nation.
3. Naira has fallen from N160 to N225 to a dollar in less than 2 years. To understand the impact of this better, consider the following:
Mr Musa earns N160,000 monthly 2 years ago, an equivalent of $1000 value at that time. If Mr. Musa is still earning N160,000 it simply means the real value of money he has is $711. This is even more real in Nigeria since almost everything is imported, and the USD is the currency used to purchase this goods. It simply means that more naira would have to be used to purchase the dollar....eventually this would lead to the price of many things going up since importers would have to break even. Take a trip to the Lagos ports, they are almost dead, customs have lost over 70% of their revenue in the last year or so, due to an almost docile activity.
4. With ISIS attacking Paris, Boko Haram has been more emboldened to continue its campaign on soft targets. The geo-political climate of Nigeria has given rise to Biafra, and in general a wave of percieved and real instability. This will only drive away investors - leaving Nigeria in a more gloomy economy mess.
5. For the past 6 months, Nigeria has had little or no policy directions. We have only 1.5 years to go, and campaigns for elections will begin. As campaigns draw closer, most of the money that would be needed for capital development woudl be diverted for elections. Agitations in the South East would continue, Boko Haram attacks on soft targets will continue, youths would remain unemployed due to little or no capital flowing into and within the country. I only see doom.
I love APC, but I am afraid, the nation can only see any TRUE change if you only give it at least a decade, the remaining 3.5 years is definitely NOT going to be better. Brace yourselves for the worst before it gets an inch better.
God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
1. When oil was over $100/bararell for the most part in GEJ's regime, the per capita income was only $2800 (average annual earning per head as a function of total GDP), meaning Nigeria saw more money than it had ever seen in the past 16 years, but most citizens can't point out to any Dubai-like improvement. Most of that money made people like Dasuki and Deziani billionaires and left over 112 million people living in poverty. Today oil price less than half of it, per capita income is down to $2200 with persistent rampant corruption even under Buhari. I doubt that any tangible thing can be done in four years. In fact, the economy is so bad that Buhari can't even balance the budget without driving Nigeria further into debt by asking the Senate to grant him approval to borrow over $10billion.
2. Today our growth rate is 2% as opposed to an annual rate of 7%. A 2% growth rate with no hope of an oil price increase will only lead to more job losses, less capital development, and an even more indebted nation.
3. Naira has fallen from N160 to N225 to a dollar in less than 2 years. To understand the impact of this better, consider the following:
Mr Musa earns N160,000 monthly 2 years ago, an equivalent of $1000 value at that time. If Mr. Musa is still earning N160,000 it simply means the real value of money he has is $711. This is even more real in Nigeria since almost everything is imported, and the USD is the currency used to purchase this goods. It simply means that more naira would have to be used to purchase the dollar....eventually this would lead to the price of many things going up since importers would have to break even. Take a trip to the Lagos ports, they are almost dead, customs have lost over 70% of their revenue in the last year or so, due to an almost docile activity.
4. With ISIS attacking Paris, Boko Haram has been more emboldened to continue its campaign on soft targets. The geo-political climate of Nigeria has given rise to Biafra, and in general a wave of percieved and real instability. This will only drive away investors - leaving Nigeria in a more gloomy economy mess.
5. For the past 6 months, Nigeria has had little or no policy directions. We have only 1.5 years to go, and campaigns for elections will begin. As campaigns draw closer, most of the money that would be needed for capital development woudl be diverted for elections. Agitations in the South East would continue, Boko Haram attacks on soft targets will continue, youths would remain unemployed due to little or no capital flowing into and within the country. I only see doom.
I love APC, but I am afraid, the nation can only see any TRUE change if you only give it at least a decade, the remaining 3.5 years is definitely NOT going to be better. Brace yourselves for the worst before it gets an inch better.
God Bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
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